Friday, May 20, 2011

Inflation, deflation, and wages

I wonder if inflation in certain goods can cause deflation in complementary goods. Take Las Vegas for example. Fuel prices have surged, causing airline fares to spike, killing tourist destinations like Las Vegas. If a person has x dollars to spend on a Las Vegas trip, and the airfare goes up 50%, it means he has less to spend on a hotel room. It seems likely that owners of certain assets will just have to accept deflation.

Interestingly, I would put homeowners in this category. Commodities are traded internationally, whereas homes are not. So, if Americans are forced by international markets to pay more for commodities, it seems to me that disposable income, and hence housing prices, would have to drop.

On a related note, several pundits like to pretend that inflation isn't a huge problem, citing stagnant wage growth as proof that inflation isn't a risk. See this example:

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2011/05/i-agree-with-paul-krugman.html

Leaving aside the stupidity of looking at a single determinant of the price level (i.e. wages) instead of the actual, existing price level to determine inflation, this seems to me to be a pretty catastrophic situation, stangant wages and surging commodity costs. This sort of scenario, which is what policymakers and economic elite bizarrely want, would seem to inevitably push down the price of existing, non-internationally traded assets, most notably homes.

At a minimum, printing dollar bills, leading to inflation in commodities, and then offsetting inflation in raw materials by holding down American wages is mathematically certain to lead to a diminished standard of living for Americans. The fact that policymakers cite this as a positive outcome is deeply troubling.

On a related note, the inflation doves are often from the academy. University tuition has gone up at more than double the rate of inflation over the past 30 years. So, inflation doesn't hurt the professors at all. I would have far more respect for the professors downplaying inflation if they'd agree to keep their wage growth in line with the average workers' wages. They'd never agree to it, and will keep protecting themselves from inflation by raising tuition (which is largely subsidized by taxpayers) while telling other people to grin and bear it, underscoring that much of the academic economic analysis has a "let them eat cake" feel to it.

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